The new Premier League season enters match day 4 with some very interesting fixtures. While it has been a perfect start for the likes of Liverpool and Leicester, it has been a disappointing one for the Manchester clubs and we offer predictions and betting tips for this round of games.
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
Chelsea are fast becoming the Premier League’s entertainers, although they have won only two of their previous five fixtures in the competition (W2, D1, L2). Each one of those fixtures had over 1.5 goals, and interestingly, three of the matches saw 2+ goals before half-time.
The ‘Blues’ were strong at home last season (W11, D3, L5), scoring first in 73.68% of their home league matches, and also netting in the 15 minutes before half-time in each of their final four such matches. However, they conceded 68.75% of their home goals after the break.
Besides the defeat to Everton, Palace have looked solid while Chelsea have looked capable of scoring, but not as much as stopping the opponent from doing same. You can stake on both sides finding the back of the net and Betpay is offering odds of 1.75 for both teams to score.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Crystal Palace
Everton vs Brighton
Everton have made a perfect three-game start to a Premier League (PL) campaign for the first time since 1993, with both teams scoring before the break (for a 2-1 HT scoreline in Everton’s favour) in two of those matches. After their 5-2 home victory over West Brom, Everton have also trailed at HT in just two of their last 20 home league games.
Since joining Everton in December, Carlo Ancelotti has lost just one home PL game (W5, D5, L1). Those home fixtures threw entertainment aplenty, with eight of the previous nine seeing both teams score. Furthermore, the ‘Blues’ have also allowed 9+ shots on their goal in seven of the previous eight such matches.
Brighton have outshot and had a greater share of possession than their opponents in each of their three PL matches, but won just one game (L2). They have, however, suffered no PL away defeat since February (W3, D5), although they won just two away league matches vs sides who finished above them last season (W2, D6, L6).
There’s only one way this appears to swing and that’s in favour of the in-form Tofees. You can find odds of 1.75 on Betpay of Everton winning.
Prediction: Everton 3-0 Brighton
Leeds vs Manchester City
Leeds United are proving their Premier League (PL) credentials, with two narrow league wins following the 4-3 defeat at Liverpool in week one. Playing with confidence under Marcelo Bielsa, Leeds have averaged 55.33% possession from their first three PL matches, additionally being shown fewer yellow cards than their opponents in each of that trio.
The ‘Peacocks’ followed up a run of eight home league matches unbeaten from last season (W7, D1) by winning their first PL home match after a 16-year hiatus. Their average conceded goals tally across those nine matches is 0.44 per match, while four of Leeds’ last five league matches played anywhere have seen over 3.5 total goals scored.
Manchester City have seen the same ‘Over 3.5’ result in both of their PL matches this season (with 5.5 on average across them). City were also the top side for this metric last season, with 52.63% of their matches producing over 3.5 total goals. Notably, they averaged 3.53 total goals away from home last season in the PL.
From the above, it is evident this is a fixture with goals in it – in prospect at least. You can bet on both teams finding the back of the net and Betpay has odds of 1.50 of that happening
Prediction: Leeds 2-2 Manchester City
Newcastle vs Burnley
Despite losing only once (W1, D1, L1), indifferent Newcastle United have managed a combined total of just four shots on target in the Premier League (PL) so far. They struggled in attack last season too, and had the joint-fourth lowest goal average with one goal per game.
The ‘Magpies’ are winless across their previous five PL home matches (D2, L3). Those games were usually quick to spring into life, with each of the previous four delivering a goal inside the opening 30 minutes. Yet, last season saw them lead at half-time in just one of their 19 home matches, and score 70% of their home goals in the second half.
Burnley have lost both of their two PL matches so far, conceding before the 21st minute in each. They’ll be hoping they don’t go six away games without a PL win, as they did at the start of the last campaign (D3, L3). All six of those matches had over 1.5 goals, and both teams scored in five.
The ‘Clarets’ have lost only one of their last ten away matches vs sides that finished below them last season (W6, D3, L1). That said, they have failed to win in any of their previous four visits to St James’ Park, averaging more yellow cards per game (3.0) than goals per game (1.0) in that sequence.
This looks like a draw written all over it and there are odds of 3.10 on Betpay of this ending in a stalemate.
Prediction: Newcastle 0-0 Burnley
Leicester vs West Ham
Leicester City currently boast a 100% Premier League (PL) record, meaning it’s the first time in their history they’ve started a top-flight season with three wins from three. They’ve also netted 12 goals in the process, and it was 2012/13 when a team last scored that amount of goals in a season so quickly. Despite three wins, each match was level at HT.
Brendan Rodgers’ side have, however, conceded 2+ goals in three consecutive home battles in all competitions (W1, D2). Regardless of that, only Manchester City earned more home PL clean sheets in 2019/20, while Leicester also won eight of nine PL fixtures at home when opening the scoring last campaign (L1).
Beating Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-0 last Sunday was West Ham United’s biggest PL victory since New Years’ Day, meaning they’ve netted nine goals in their last two in all competitions. In PL action, the ‘Hammers’ remain one of just eight in the league yet to be losing at HT (W1, D2).
Despite scoring first in three of their past four PL away matches, West Ham only have one win to show for it (D2, L1). Last season, they were the only team in the league not to score an away goal beyond the 75th-minute, so it’s no shock they lost all nine PL away clashes when conceding first.
West Ham may have gotten an impressive 4-0 win over Wolves last week, but they come up against a very good and in-form Leicester side and the odds favour the Foxes here. You can stake on Betpay with odds of 1.70 for a Leicester win.
Prediction: Leicester 3-1 West Ham
Southampton vs West Brom
Having notched their first victory of the season vs a plucky Burnley last time out, Southampton (W1, D1, L1) now look to extend an impressive eight-game winning streak vs promoted sides in the Premier League (PL). Topically, Southampton can equal their best-ever PL winning streak vs a specific opponent with a fourth over West Bromwich Albion here.
Southampton have an awful record of conceding first in 14 of their last 20 PL home games. However, the ‘Saints’ did recover at least a point in over a third of those games (W2, D3, L9) and as such, 13 of those 20 PL home matches saw both teams score (65%). It should come as little surprise then that they haven’t seen a goalless draw across their last 34 PL home outings.
Last weekend’s 3-3 draw with Chelsea saw WBA became the first team since themselves in 2010/11 to fail to win despite going into HT with a 3-0 lead. However manager Slaven Bilić is yet to draw vs Southampton (W2, L3), with four of those games producing over 2.5 goals.
Considering their two-year hiatus from the top flight, it’s interesting to note that WBA have notched a 1-0 victory within the first two away rounds of each of their last three PL campaigns. However, such a scoreline would go against a trend, as their last 24 away league games averaged 2.42 total goals per fixture.
The Baggies have been in bad form since their return to the Premier League and this looks like another defeat for them and Betpay is offering odds of 1.75 for a Saints’ win.
Prediction: Southampton 2-1 West Brom
Arsenal vs Sheffield Utd
|Despite netting a first-half opener against Liverpool in their last Premier League (PL) match, Arsenal fell to a 3-1 HT/FT defeat. They’ve now dropped 18 points from winning PL positions since Mikel Arteta took charge – no team has dropped more during that time period. However, that result did see Arsenal score the opener before the 30th minute for the third time this top-flight campaign.|
Stretching back into last season, the ‘Gunners’ are unbeaten in their previous ten PL home games (W8, D2), although their 2-1 win in their opening home match this campaign did continue a fledgling trend – both teams have scored before HT in the last three PL games at the Emirates.
Sheffield United are in turmoil after losing their opening three matches of a new league campaign for only the third time in their history (1966/67 and 1995/96), with those defeats forming part of a six-game losing league run – their worst such streak since September 2013. The only PL side that are still to score, one positive is that they’ve at least managed a 0-0 HT draw in their last two PL matches.
The ‘Blades’ are also winless in their previous seven PL road trips (D2, L5), with their 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa in their last away outing continuing a low-scoring trend from last season, where Sheffield saw a league-low average of 2.05 match goals per away fixture.
The Gunners have been in good form and the money is on them to make this another win. You can stake for an Arsenal win on Betway with odds of 1.55.
Prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Sheffield Utd
Wolves vs Fulham
Wolverhampton Wanderers fell to a 4-0 defeat at the weekend, in what was their heaviest Premier League (PL) loss since March 2012. All three of their PL matches have now seen the same HT/FT outcome (W1, L2), after the opening goal was scored within 20 minutes in each.
They will be desperate to avoid losing here, considering Wolves last lost their opening two top-flight home games back in 1970/71! They carry an exceptional H2H home league record since the turn of the century into this game though (W8, D3), and were also unbeaten against newly-promoted sides at home last season (W2, D1), with both wins seeing Wolves lead at HT.
A 3-0 defeat last time out gave Fulham a third consecutive PL loss, all of which saw them concede 3+ goals – they are now only the fourth side across the previous 28 PL seasons to have conceded 3+ goals in their opening three games! Not only did they concede the opener before the tenth minute in all three fixtures, they also conceded in both halves in all three too.
The visitors’ 4-3 defeat in their opening PL away fixture did see them score after HT for the third away league game running though. However the ‘Cottagers’ could struggle to score here considering their average of 1.04 goals netted per away game in the second tier last season firmly placed them in the division’s bottom half for that metric.
While they may have suffered a battering at West Ham, the money is still on Wolves to continue Fulham’s nightmarish return to the top flight and Betpay offers odds of 1.50 for that happening.
Prediction: Wolves 3-0 Fulham
Manchester United vs Tottenham
|A dramatic injury-time penalty gave Manchester United their first win of the Premier League (PL) campaign, making it their sixth league game from the previous eight to have featured a penalty (for/against). They have now scored in 15 straight PL matches, but remain without a clean sheet in both games this season – and haven’t gone three PL games without a clean sheet since a run of 14 that ended on Boxing Day 2019.|
|United lost their opening home fixture, but haven’t gone winless in their first two PL home games since 1996/97 (D2), or lost both since 1986/87. Worryingly though, United are winless in their last three PL home matches (D2, L1), each time conceding the opener.|
|Crazy scheduling means Tottenham Hotspur will play their third game in a week here, but they arrive unbeaten in six competitive matches (W5, D1) – including a win via penalties, and discounting a walkover. Furthemore, Spurs are undefeated in eight of their last nine league matches (W5, D3, L1), scoring first in five.|
|However, Tottenham have kept just two clean sheets across their last 27 PL away games – both against now-relegated teams from 2019/20. Furthermore, José Mourinho is searching for his first away win in seven attempts against teams he previously managed (D2, L4). A result either way beckons though, as none of the last 14 PL H2Hs held here have ended level.|
In all, neither side is in great form and it could be a safe bet to stake on a draw for this one and Betway has one of the highest odds with 3.70 for a draw.
Prediction: Manchester United 2-2 Tottenham
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Aston Villa were hammered in all three competitive H2Hs vs Liverpool last season, and in fact, they’ve lost five straight matches against the Merseysiders – conceding an average of 3.6 goals per game in the process. But that is, as they say, in the past, and this season the ‘Villans’ have got off to a bright start in the Premier League (PL), winning their first two matches. In perspective, they had five points after seven PL rounds last season.
To continue the plaudits, Villa are the only PL side yet to concede a goal this season. They kept seven clean sheets last season, but none of those came against teams that finished in the top seven spots. In these matches (vs ‘Top seven’) they were worse for wear, conceding 2.79 goals on average across 14 matches, and conceding 2+ goals in 13 of them.
Enter reigning champions Liverpool, who’ve won all three league matches so far whilst scoring 3.0 goals on average per game. New signing Diogo Jota scored the club’s 400th PL goal on his debut under Jürgen Klopp in the last round, making the German the fastest manager in the club’s history to reach that tally.
Before the title was secured last season, Liverpool won 12 of 15 PL away matches (D2, L1). Two thirds of those wins came by a single-goal margin, with 2-1 the most common result (five times) – as it finished at this venue. Liverpool came back from 1-0 down to win 2-1 that time, uncommon as they were ahead at HT in 64.23% of their PL away wins last time out.
According to the form book, there is only one winner here and that is Liverpool and Betway has odds of 1.35 for a win for the Reds.