The Premier League returns for match day eight before the international break and there are some mouthwatering fixtures in the offing.
First, we start off from the Amex Stadium down to the City of Manchester Stadium where we give you predictions and betting tips for all the games.
Brighton vs Burnley
Now winless in five games (D2, L3) Brighton & Hove Albion manager Graham Potter has overseen the joint-worst seven-game start since the club’s promotion to the Premier League (PL). Moreover, 71.42% of their PL games have seen over 2.5 total goals (3.57 on average), and there have been goals in both halves in each of the Seagulls’ PL home games.
Brighton have notably won three (L1) of their four PL games played on a Friday. Both of those Friday wins on home turf came by a 1-0 scoreline, whilst all three victories came without reply. Any repeat of those 1-0 matches may see the decider come in the second half, with 2.33 goals on average in that period across Brighton’s PL home games (1H: 1.33).
Visiting Burnley must win to remove themselves from their rock-bottom berth and put them within striking distance of Brighton. However, Burnley are enduring their worst campaign since promotion, based on both points and goals conceded (2.0 per-match on average). Moreover, they have lost their only two Friday-held PL games without reply.
An alarming five of Burnley’s seven conceded away goals have come after HT. Additionally, Burnley have received more yellow cards away from home than all but three sides – 2+ in each game, and more than their opposition in two. On a brighter note, Burnley boast a 57.14% W/D rate across their last 21 PL away games entered as outsiders (W6, D6, L9).
Neither side have quite impressive this term and a draw looks written all over this one. Stake on Betpay with odds of 3.50 for a draw.
Prediction: Brighton 1-1 Burnley
Southampton vs Newcastle
Southampton are undefeated in five Premier League (PL) matches, winning four (D1), which has contributed to their best start to a league season in six years. They also led at HT in all four of those victories and scored five goals between the 30th minute and HT across their previous four fixtures.
On top of this, Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men have scored the opening goal in all three of their PL home matches so far, although you’d have to go back to April 2016 for the last time they did that in a home fixture vs Newcastle United. Interestingly, there’s been a penalty awarded in two of the three H2H fixtures at St Mary’s since that meeting four years ago.
Newcastle will be happy with their start to the season (W3, D2, L2), yet they were denied a clean sheet last week via a stoppage-time Everton goal, meaning they’ve now conceded in 13 of their previous 15 PL matches. Furthermore, each of the previous five PL goals they’ve conceded have now arrived after the 75th minute.
The ‘Magpies’ are actually undefeated in four PL away matches – albeit drawing three (W1). Interestingly, they’ve picked up a combined five yellow cards across their previous two PL matches on the road, contributing to an overall total of 15 – only two sides have picked up more this season.
Also another tie that looks like a draw as both sides appear evenly matched. There odds of 3.60 for a stalemate on Betpay.
Prediction: Southampton 2-2 Newcastle
Everton vs Manchester United
After a blistering Premier League (PL) start which saw Everton go five matches undefeated (W4, D1), they’ve now lost each of their previous two. Everton have now conceded exactly two goals in four straight PL matches, and are also without a clean sheet since an opening day victory away at Tottenham.
Furthermore, they’ve conceded first in four of their previous six PL fixtures, but the good news for the Merseysiders is that they remain a constant goal threat themselves. Only four sides have scored more PL goals this season, and in addition, Everton have drawn a blank in just one of their ten competitive matches so far.
Manchester United’s defeat to İstanbul Başakşehir on Wednesday night put further pressure on boss Ole Gunnar Solskjær after their weekend loss to Arsenal, a game where Solskjær commented “we didn’t turn up”. More potent on their travels than at home this campaign, the loss in Turkey actually ended their longest-ever competitive run of away wins (ten matches) – if excluding neutral venues from the record.
In need of a win, the ‘Red Devils’ are winless in their previous three H2H matches with Everton (D2, L1), conceding at least once before HT in each of that trio. Yet, regardless of the opposition, they often strike late on when travelling, scoring four (57.14%) of their seven PL away goals this term after the 80th minute.
While the Tofees looks to have lost a bit of the steam with which they started the season, they are still miles ahead of United and look set for a win against the Red Devils. Odds of 2.95 are up on Betpay for an Everton win.
Prediction: Everton 2-1 Manchester United
Crystal Palace vs Leeds
Crystal Palace’s flying start to the season has been extinguished, after just one win across their last five Premier League (PL) matches (W1, D1, L3). A fairly low-scoring side in their first seven league matches (1.14 on average), their form has suffered mainly due to defensive frailty, with the team keeping just one PL clean sheet across their last 15 matches (W3, D2, L10).
Palace have one of each at home (W1, D1, L1), where 83.33% of the total six goals have been scored before the break. All three matches featured at least one goal struck before the 20th minute, while the hosts were awarded more yellow cards than their visitors in all three.
Tied on points with Palace (W3, D1, L3), Leeds have given as good as they’ve taken in their return to PL football (GF 13, GA 13), and have consistently won in the possession stakes so far. Four of their six matches won/lost have been decided by a single goal margin, and conceding the first goal has usually proven telling for them (D1, L3).
Away from home, Leeds have won two in a row, keeping two straight clean sheets and scoring their five most recent PL goals on the road in the second half. Across all tiers, Leeds have won seven of their last ten away league matches (W7, D1, L2), keeping five clean sheets.
Expect Leeds to win in a high-scoring game and you can find the odds on Betpay for 2.45.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 2-3 Leeds
Chelsea vs Sheffield
If including only 2020 home league results against non top-four teams of 2019/20, Chelsea are unbeaten in home league action (W7, D2) this calendar year. Three of the five wins in that group to yield a 2+ goal margin saw Chelsea distribute their goals (penalty goals excepted) evenly across halves.
Speaking of penalties, Chelsea bagged two first-half goals from the spot vs Rennes in midweek (both scored by Timo Werner). Furthermore, they have averaged 0.8 penalty goals per match across their last five Premier League (PL) home wins – and 0.6 between the 76th and 90th minutes of play alone!
Overall, Chelsea have averaged 3.33 goals per match across their PL wins attained so far in 2020/21. Each of the Blues’ three PL wins this term (D3, L1) have also seen them score exactly two second-half goals from open play, with the goals separated by less than 20 minutes each time.
With just one point this season, defeat for Sheffield United will see them five points adrift of the tally they had after eight games in 2006/07 – the club’s only prior 38-game PL relegation campaign. Still tough to beat, four of Sheffield’s last five league losses have seen the deciding goal arrive beyond the hour mark.
The beleaguered ‘Blades’ have also conceded an average of 1.25 goals per match in the 61’-75’ period across their last four PL away defeats. Those form the tail-end of five straight PL losses on the road, for a post-COVID hiatus return of just two away points from 27 (D2, L7).
Players to watch: Penalty maestro Jorginho takes the spotlight. His all-time penalty conversion rate stands at 88.46% (PL: 87.50%).
You can stake on a Chelsea win with odds of 1.45 on Betpay.
Prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Sheffield
West Ham vs Fulham
West Ham United have scored in each of their last six Premier League (PL) matches and their overall record this term (W2, D2, L3) is not too bad considering four of those games came against sides that finished last term in the top six (W1, D2, L1). Interestingly, five (38.46%) of their 13 goals this term came after the 75th minute.
Impressively, they are yet to concede a first-half league goal at home (HT: W2, D1) and since the start of last season, scoring first as hosts has been profitable (W6, D4, L2). Meanwhile, they haven’t lost any of the last ten home league H2Hs (W6, D4), with two of the last three producing a goal inside the first five minutes.
After a slow start, Fulham (W1, D1, L5) seem to be finding some form with one loss in their last three games (W1, D1), including a 2-0 win over West Bromwich Albion last time out. Nevertheless, they’ve conceded an average of two goals per league game and kept just one PL clean sheet this term.
With just one win in 22 PL away matches (D3, L18) since the start of their 2018/19 campaign, the ‘Cottagers’ have struggled to get a foothold in such games. This term, they haven’t scored in the opening 30 minutes on the road and are yet to lead at the break (HT: D2, L1).
Fulham may have won their first game of the season last week, they will however come up against an increasingly dangerous West Ham side and Betpay has some of the highest odds for a Hammers’ win with 1.95.
Prediction: West Ham 3-1 Fulham
West Brom vs Tottenham
Struggling West Bromwich Albion (D3, L4) have made their worst start to a league campaign since 1985/86, when they were relegated in last place. Goals have been an issue, and they’ve managed just one across their previous four Premier League (PL) fixtures, and just six all campaign. Interestingly though, four of those six arrived before the 30th minute.
At the other end of the pitch, the ‘Baggies’ have conceded a total of 16 goals, and no side had conceded more before this gameweek. Perhaps as a result of fatigue kicking in later in the match, it is also worth noting that they have conceded at least one goal after the 60th minute in five of their seven PL matches.
Tottenham’s impressive start to the season (W4, D2, L1) saw them go as high as second for the first time since February 2019 last weekend. They eventually finished the gameweek third, which is coincidentally where they rank in terms of the highest average number of shots on target per game (5.71).
Excluding a bye in the EFL Cup, José Mourinho’s side have won six (L1) of their previous seven competitive matches on the road, scoring 2+ goals in five of those matches. Additionally, they scored 2+ goals in four of their six matches vs newly promoted sides last season and lost only once (W3, D2, L1).
No chance for West Brom in this one and you can bet on a Tottenham win on Betpay with odds of 1.55.
Prediction: West Brom 0-3 Tottenham
Manchester City vs Liverpool
Manchester City have responded in style with an eight-game unbeaten run (W6, D2) following their record-breaking heavy beating by Leicester, most recently securing three consecutive wins ‘to nil’. They’ve shut out Liverpool in two of the last three Premier League (PL) home H2Hs too, winning all three and scoring 2.0 goals on average across the first half in those.
In the league, City trail Liverpool by five points going into this match (W3, D2, L1) but have a game in hand and will move close with a win here. Uncharacteristically, City have scored just 1.5 goals on average across their league matches so far, and netted precisely one in their previous three. However, the last six PL H2Hs have featured 3.83 total goals on average.
Aside from the Aston Villa incident earlier this season (2-7), Liverpool’s two heaviest PL defeats under Jürgen Klopp have both been at the Etihad (4-0 and 5-0). However, they’ve defied the doubters by winning all five competitive matches since the season-ending injury to Virgil van Dijk, but regardless, they still enter this match on the back of 2.14 conceded goals per league fixture.
After beating Arsenal 3-1 earlier in the season, Klopp has now guided Liverpool through 50 matches against the vaunted “Top Six” sides, coming out the other end with 24 wins and just eight defeats (D18) – in comparison, City have 17 defeats from 49 in the same period.
Expect goals from this one and Betpay has odds of 1.35 for both teams to score.