Last weekend’s win against Aston Villa has Brighton & Hove Albion entering the round in 16th place. That was only their second Premier League (PL) win of the season (D3, L4) despite encouraging play that’s seen them sit in the top half for metrics such as shots (112 – 8th), touches (6106 – 10th), passes (4492 – 10th), hitting the woodwork (six – 2nd), and big chances missed (ten – 6th).

Brighton have, at least, lost just once across their last five PL matches (W1, D3), but they remain one of three winless home sides (D2, L2). Their failure to win here has come despite dominating possession, goal attempts and corners in three of those four games. Furthermore, they conceded the last goal in three of those matches, and have subsequently conceded 71.43% of their home goals during the second half.

Liverpool enter the round tied at the top with Tottenham (W6, D2, L1), but lost against Atalanta in midweek, in what was their first defeat after a run of six wins across their previous seven competitive matches (D1). Domestically the goals are flowing in all directions, with Liverpool’s PL fixtures averaging a league-high 4.11 total goals per match.

However on the road, Liverpool have won just one of four league matches so far (D2, L1) – including a 7-2 defeat against Aston Villa, whom Brighton beat in the last round. Moreover, Liverpool are yet to score beyond the 73rd minute in these matches, and netted the game’s final goal in just one of the four.

The Reds appear to been managing just fine considering their current injury woes, not minding the blip in midweek in the Champions League. Bookies are calling this one for Liverpool and there are incredible odds of 1.80 on Betpay.

Prediction: Brighton 1-3 Liverpool


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