In conceding a late equaliser vs West Ham, in a 2-2 draw on Dec 27, Brighton extended their winless run to six matches (D4, L2), opening up the possibility of them starting 2021 in the bottom three. Beating Arsenal 2-1 in last season’s corresponding fixture – another game that produced over 2.5 goals – turned out to be the birth of a curse for Brighton.
They haven’t won once in 11 league matches played at the Amex Stadium since (D5, L6), conceding an average of 3.17 goals per match across the defeats. Graham Potter’s side are also yet to score from open play before the 30th minute at home in the Premier League (PL) this season.
Arsenal won emphatically on Boxing Day after being winless in seven PL games prior (D2, L5). Away form remains alarming though, as the ‘Gunners’ have failed to score from open play in any of their previous five PL fixtures on the road (W1, D1, L3), while both teams have scored in just two of their seven PL away matches so far.
Though 2020/21 has been tough for Arsenal, their PL win rate in the first half of 2020 (45.45%) is currently just 4.54% above that of this calendar year’s second half (Jul-present). Meanwhile, their five-year record in finales to a calendar year reads evenly: W2, D1, L2, with an average margin of exactly goals two separating the teams across the games won/lost.
Arsenal are coming off a morale-boosting win over Chelsea and will look to continue the run. Our tipsters have called this an Arsenal win or a draw and that attracts odds of 1.30.
Brighton 1-2 Arsenal