Chelsea stuck four past Morecambe here in the third round, but that result is one of just two wins they’ve secured since Christmas (W2, D1, L3), so this is a home side in shaky form and potentially there for the taking as second-tier Luton travel to Stamford Bridge. That said, the ‘Blues’ hammered Championship side Barnsley 6-0 here in the EFL Cup earlier in the season, and haven’t lost a FA Cup home game versus a lower league side since January 2015.
Still, the average of 1.35 goals conceded per Premier League (PL) game under Frank Lampard’s reign – the worst such average of any permanent Chelsea manager – indicates they’re not impenetrable. However just two defeats across their last 20 home games in all competitions shows why they’re comfortable favourites here (W13, D5, L2).
Luton may count themselves lucky to have scraped past Reading in the third round (1-0), and with their last three FA Cup fixtures vs PL sides ending in a defeat by a 2+ goal margin, they will be well aware of the gulf that exists between England’s footballing tiers. However these sides actually have an extensive H2H history (LUT: W14, D12, L17) which started back in 1927 in a 4-0 FA Cup defeat at Stamford Bridge, and was bookended by a 1994 2-0 FA Cup loss here too.
Another defeat ‘to nil’ could be looming as the ‘Hatters’ travel here after failing to score in five of their last seven away games (W1, D1, L5), a run that has confirmed Luton’s status as the Championship’s lowest scorers on the road (0.46 goals on average per match).
Chelsea 4-0 Luton